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About the Lecture Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.
Introduction
Dr. Arulalan Thanigachalam
Scientist, India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India
Heatwaves over India in the +1.5°C and +2.0°C warmer worlds
Q & A
Dr. Arulalan Thanigachalam, is a distinguished atmospheric scientist with expertise in numerical weather prediction and cyclone forecasting. He holds a B.Sc in Physics from A.M. Jain College, an M.C.A from Saveetha Engineering College, and an M.Tech in Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences from IIT Delhi. He earned his PhD in 2024 from IIT Delhi, focusing on heatwaves over India. With over a decade of experience, Dr. Arulalan has contributed significantly to weather forecasting. As a Scientist-C at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), he has played a crucial role in cyclone track prediction, accurately forecasting 14 cyclones from 2021 to 2024 with minimal landfall errors, aiding in disaster preparedness and ensuring zero mortality. He also developed Mausamgram, a weather information website launched by the Vice President of India in 2024. Additionally, he actively contributes to IMD's operational forecasting, issuing daily weather bulletins and video briefings. Dr. Arulalan has published 17 research papers in peer-reviewed journals and has been recognized with several prestigious awards, including: .......Best Employee Award, IMD (March 2024) .......Best Paper Citation & Young Scientist Award (Tropmet-2024, NIT Rourkela) .......Best Oral Presentation – Prof. A.D. Rao Award (OSICON-25, February 2025) His contributions continue to shape India's meteorological advancements, enhancing weather prediction accuracy and public awareness.